Capitol Calling

CBT: The Gift and the Curse

My latest post for the Columbia Business Times explores the impact of Sen. Kurt Schaefer's ascension to the vice chairmanship of the Senate Appropriations Committee.

The post also looks at how Rep. Chris Kelly, D-Columbia, will be involved in the budgetary process since he will no longer serve as the ranking member of the House Budget Committee.

You can read the post here.

Nodler steps down as Senate Appropriations chairman

Sen. Gary Nodler has decided to step aside as chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee.

Nodler, R-Joplin, is one of many Republicans seeking the U.S. Seventh District House seat. In a statement, he attributed his decision to his focus on his congressional run.

“As a candidate for Congress, it would not be possible to give sufficient attention to both the time demands of a campaign and the time demands of being chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee,” Nodler said. “I also have a deep appreciation for the long-standing and strong tradition of the Senate Appropriations Committee being the most bipartisan committee in the Legislature. Republicans and Democrats work together and that carries through to floor unity to keep our budget recommendations intact throughout the process. Protecting the tradition of bipartisanship is vital to the success of the budget process. As a candidate, it would be difficult to maintain that tradition while I am involved in a partisan primary.”

The press release also stated that Nodler was stepping aside to "ensure that there can not even be the appearance of political ambition in any way influencing the actions of the chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee."

This is the second straight time a chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee stepped down before a term expired. Sen. Chuck Gross, R-St. Charles, resigned from the committee and the Senate to take a county position in St. Charles.

Senate President Pro Tem Charlie Shields, R-St. Joseph, will be in charge of selecting a replacement for Nodler. If leaves the committee altogether, he may have to appoint another Republican to the budget writing committee. 

Steelman looms over MO-7

Although former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman told KY3 reporter Dave Catanese that she's still mulling a U.S. Senate bid, there is speculation that she could shift to the race for the U.S. Seventh District House seat.

Such a move would throw a monkey wrench into the already crowded race. While Steelman isn't actually from the district, she won sizable majorities in MO-7 counties during her 2008 gubernatorial bid in population bubbles such as Springfield. She also teaches a class at Missouri State University.

Make no mistake, Steelman's entry into the congressional race could be a big deal. Former contestants in statewide contests have experience in wrangling up staffers, formulating a media blitz and traveling long distances to reach out to voters. They also carry fairly substantial name recognition.

Even though he lost in 2004, some have pointed to Blaine Luetkemeyer's experience in running for state treasurer as a major asset in his 2008 congressional bid.

But all this talk could be moot if Steelman decided to square off against U.S. Rep. Roy Blunt, R-Springfield, in the GOP primary for U.S. Senate. And many of the other candidates in the MO-7 sweepstakes - such as Sens. Gary Nodler, and Jack Goodman, Billy Long and Darrell Moore - are not exactly pushovers.

Still, it's fun to speculate.

It would be a weird twist of fate if Steelman and Luetkemeyer both ended up in the U.S. House together. The two ran against each other in the 2004 race for treasurer, a contest that Steelman eventually won in the general election.

You've Got The Touch!

You're a winner!

A few months ago, I came up with an informal ranking system of the potential candidates for the U.S. Seventh District House seat. I decided to let some time pass before updating the list. It was probably a good a decision, as a number of candidates have entered the fray.

Some - like state Sen. Gary Nodler, R-Joplin - were not totally unexpected. Others - like Greene County Prosecutor Darrell Moore or political newcomer Jeff Wisdom - are surprises.

While it's still very early in the process, here's how I see things standing right now. Remember, the only thing that matters in any election is the final total on election day:

9. Nixa Councilman Kevin Elmer: Elmer is still the only candidate from fast-growing Christian County, which is a plus. I have to question though whether the influx of other Springfield-area candidates are drowning Elmer out.

8. Former state Rep. B.J. Marsh: I've heard almost nothing about Marsh lately. That doesn't mean he won't get in, but the influx of Springfield candidates doesn't help. Still, he could self-finance and does have some name recognition through his travel business.

7. Jeff Wisdom: As a newcomer to the political process, Wisdom might be able to attract some votes from disaffected Republicans tired of "politics as usual." But that role might already be taken by another candidate on this list...

6. John Putnam: As a Joplin-area candidate, Putnam could cost Nodler some votes. And in a wild contest like this, that could make a difference.

5. Hal Donaldson: The president of the non-profit ministry Convoy of Hope is a sleeper. While his campaign hasn't made much noise lately, Donaldson does have the fundraising skills to be a serious contender.

4. Greene County Prosecutor Darrell Moore: Moore's successfully run for a countywide office in the district's most populous area. And his high-profile position probably puts him television more than most of the other candidates. He has the potential to be a major force in this race.

2. [tie] Sen. Gary Nodler, R-Joplin: Nodler could be the dominant candidate from the Joplin area, a fairly significant population center. And in contest that is becoming top-heavy with Springfield-area candidates, Nodler might be able to eek a plurality. There is precedent of candidates who have lost before eventually prevailing in their races for higher office.

2. [tie] Billy Long: There are certainly benefits to having solid backing from elements of a political party. But Long proves that there are rewards to being a political outsider at a time when the Republican Party is doing serious soul searching. After a solid fundraising quarter, Long as of now seems to be the top candidate from Springfield. But will the aforementioned influx of other candidates from the area sap away critical votes?

1. Sen. Jack Goodman, R-Mt. Vernon: David Catanese over at the KY3 Blog placed Long at the top of his power rankings. With a solid fundraising quarter, good name recognition and an outsider mentality, Long is definitely a front-running candidate. But I'm going to keep Goodman at the top of this list by a hair. I predict Goodman's fundraising will pick up now that the legislative session is over. And he could definitely take a lot of votes in the area between Springfield and Joplin. I could be wrong on both counts, though. If Nodler, Moore or Long outpace Goodman in the money race, he might fall off the top spot.

"Soon"

Senate Appropriations Chairman Gary Nodler, R-Joplin, spent quite a bit of time thanking individuals involved in the budget making process. And some in the Capitol speculated there was specific reason behind the plethora of thankfulness.

Several sources said that Nodler will not return as chairman of the powerful committee in order to concentrate on a run for the U.S. Seventh District House seat. After the budget process wrapped up, I asked Nodler if he was going to give us his chairmanship.

I also asked him if he's made a decision about running for U.S. Rep. Roy Blunt's seat.

Needless to say, Nodler was coy in his answers:

If Nodler entered the MO-7 sweepstakes, he would face quite a bit of competition. There are around 10 Republican candidates who are possible candidates in the race.

Got the Power

U.S. Rep. Roy Blunt’s departure from the U.S. House ensures that a bunch of Republicans will seek Missouri’s Seventh District Congressional seat. At this early juncture, I thought it would be a good exercise to examine this potentially wild contest.

This totally informal analysis is devised partly by reading dispatches from KY3’s David Catanese and News-Leader reporter Chad Livengood. I also take into consideration a candidate’s fundraising ability, endorsements, experience and geographic advantages.  I'll periodically reexamine my observations.

Remember, all the predictions in the world don't mean anything compared to the final result on Election Day.

- John Putnam

He has the potential to siphon off some of the Joplin vote. I wonder though whether advocacy of the Fair Tax will be attractive enough to gather enough support across the district.

- Kevin Elmer

It’s not unheard of for councilmen or councilwoman to get elected to Congress. But being from Nixa doesn’t necessarily provide an advantage in the Springfield-area market. He could, however, be a vote-getter in fast-growing Christian County.

- B.J. Marsh

Marsh has a record of electability in the Springfield metro area. His kind words about Gov. Jay Nixon and somewhat moderate views on issues might hurt him, though.

- Bryan Stevenson

Stevenson’s ranking here is dependent on if he actually runs for the seat. As a sitting state representative and chairman of a major House committee, he could be a contender. I also question whether his comments regarding the Civil War will be much of an issue.

- Billy Long

Long is well-known in Springfield and could be a serious candidate if he self-finances. He's the race's current wild card.

- Gary Nodler

Nodler’s run for the seat twice and he's a decent fundraiser. But does he want to try again? He told Catanese he’s going to hold off on a decision for awhile.

- Jack Goodman

Shane Schoeller’s endorsement spares Goodman of a potentially strong primary opponent. And whether you like it or not, establishment backing means quite a bit in a congressional race where money and organization are the deciding factors. He's not in a population center of the district, but that didn't seem to hurt Blaine Luetkemeyer.

Goodman sprints into MO-7 fray

Sen. Jack Goodman's bid for Congress might have gotten a significant boost today with state Rep. Shane Schoeller's exit from the MO-7 Republican primary.

Goodman, R-Mt. Vernon, is spending Friday rolling out his congressional campaign in different portions of the U.S. Seventh District. KY3's David Catanese reported today that Schoeller, R-Springfield, was on hand at one stop to introduce Goodman.

As of now, there are three potential candidates from the Springfield area - auctioneer Billy Long, Nixa councilman Kevin Elmer and former state Rep. B.J. Marsh. It's highly possible those three could split up the Springfield-area vote, giving an advantage to a non-Springfielder like Goodman.

The big question now is whether Sen. Gary Nodler, R-Joplin, will jump into the contest. Nodler - who has run for the seat twice - told Catanese that he is not ready to make a decision yet.

The Republican primary in MO-7 is important, because it's highly unlikely a Democrat could put up a fight in the heavily-GOP district.

Livengood pieces together MO-7 puzzle

Chad Livengood of the Springfield News-Leader examined what could be one of the most-watched races in the 2010 election cycle: the Republican primary for Missouri's Seventh Congressional District.

The district could become vacant if U.S. Rep. Roy Blunt, R-Strafford, runs for the U.S. Senate. And Livengood reported that seven Republican candidates could jump into the mix. The potential candidates include:

- Sen. Jack Goodman, R-Mt. Vernon

- Billy Long, an auctioneer from Springfield

- Former Rep. B.J. Marsh, R-Springfield

- Sen. Gary Nodler, R-Joplin

- Carthage resident John Putnam

- Rep. Shane Schoeller, R-Willard

- Rep. Bryan Stevenson, R-Webb City

As Livengood noted, a person grabbing 20 percent of the vote could prevail in a seven-way primary. It will be worth watching to see if either a Springfield candidate or a Joplin candidate can extend their vote total beyond their home base. Another thing to look out for is Goodman's potential to scoop up the other counties that make up the district.

Like any contest for a vacant congressional seat, fundraising is going to be a key factor in distinguishing serious candidates. In a seven-person race that is likely to divvy up traditional Republican fundraising sources, a candidate who can self-finance might be able to gain a foothold in the Springfield and Joplin television markets.

Yatzee!

There’s naturally quite a bit of intrigue over the potential Republican [and to a less extent, Democratic] contenders for Missouri’s soon-to-be vacant U.S. Senate seat.

But as a reporter who spent the past year obsessing over the tangle in the state’s Ninth Congressional District, I have some residual interest in the potential Republican bloodbath in the Missouri’s Seventh District. U.S. Rep. Roy Blunt's decision to run for Senate leaves the seat open.

I say Republican bloodbath because the victor in the GOP primary will almost certainly win the general election. The district’s Republican tilt is so overwhelming, it’s unlikely even a known official – such as former House Speaker Jim Kreider, D-Nixa, or state Rep. Sara Lampe, D-Springfield – would have much of a chance.

Several names have popped up in last 48 hours. I'm sure I'm excluding numerous local and county officials that could be candidates, so please feel free to list any people I've missed in the comments section:

           

      Sen. Gary Nodler, R-Joplin: The chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee actually ran for Congress against Roy Blunt in 1996. Given Blunt’s longstanding tenure as Greene County Clerk and Missouri's Secretary of State, it was not surprising that Nodler fell way short of winning the Republican primary.

But the past 12 years have brought about a metamorphosis in Nodler’s electoral prospects. After barely prevailing in a primary for a state Senate seat encompassing Joplin, Nodler clawed his way to become the chairman of one of the legislature’s most powerful committees. Nodler has also proven to be adept at raising money.

          

      Sen. Jack Goodman, R-Mt. Vernon: With photogenic looks and a record as a legislative wheeler-dealer, Goodman has plenty of potential in a congressional primary. He gained attention and notoriety when he led the charge to repeal a law making it easier for land developers to create villages.

In some respects, Goodman fits the Blaine Luetkemeyer mold. Both reside in a rather remote part of their congressional districts. And neither man possesses an extraordinary amount of pizzazz. But Goodman seems to be a candidate that could garner significant amounts of organizational and financial support based on existing relationships within state politics.

           State Rep. Jay Wasson, R-Nixa: Wasson’s name has been brought up in lists of potential Seventh District contenders. I think he’s far more likely to run for the state Senate in 2010. But I could be wrong.

 

           State Rep. Bryan Stevenson, R-Joplin: A potential wildcard in this race is the chairman of the House Judiciary Committee. Not only could he potentially dilute Nodler’s vote total in Joplin, but he might be able to pull away financial support from the legal community that could gravitate to Goodman.

 

(Columbia Daily Tribune photo)

           Gov. Matt Blunt: You’ve probably noticed that the candidates listed here are state legislators. That’s because I'm making the assumption that the current governor will leave politics behind on Monday and enter the private sector.

But if Blunt decides to run for the seat, it changes things dramatically. He’d almost certainly be able to channel an enormous amount of money for the contest. He would possess almost universal name recognition. And he's also never lost an election before.

No doubt his tenure as governor was rocky, but could he have enough juice left in southwest Missouri to win a Republican primary? It's possible.

If Blunt runs for his father’s seat, it would put in motion an almost unprecedented situation of a former Missouri governor deciding to run for the U.S. House of Representatives.