Capitol Calling

KBIA Commentary: Rosenbaum in Arkansas

This week's KBIA commentary touches on my historic trip... to Arkansas.

More specifically, the piece takes a look at how Democrats in Arkansas and Missouri have moved to the right of their national party. It also looks at whether such a move could spark a backlash.

Take a gander:

Nookiegate?

There's a lot of fluttering in the blogosphere over U.S. Rep. Ike Skelton's remarks during debate over defense legislation.

As I noted yesterday, Republicans harshly criticized the decision to include an amendment dealing with hate crimes  with a bill that dealt with a number of defense-related issues. U.S. Rep. Todd Akin - a Town and Country Republican who is on the House Armed Services Committee - was among the Republican lawmakers critical of the decision.

Skelton - the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee - noted that the bill passed by a large margin in the Senate. Several press outlets then reported that Skelton turned to an aide and said "so stick it up your ass."

A video of the incident was played on FOX News yesterday.

The utterance sparked a mini-firestorm. The Missouri Republican Party called on Skelton to apologize to Akin, while state Sen. Bill Stouffer's campaign sent out an e-mail to reporters showcasing a Washington Times article on the incident.

Skelton told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that he would apologize to Akin if he was offended by the comment.

The aforementioned amendment would extend federal hate crimes laws to sexual orientation. Akin joined U.S. Reps. Roy Blunt, R-Springfield, Sam Graves, R-Tarkio, and Joann Emerson, R-Cape Girardeau, in voting against the bill. While he said he disagreed with the amendment, U.S. Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer, R-St. Elizabeth, bucked the rest of Missouri's GOP delegation and voted for the legislation.

KBIA Commentary: Targeting Skelton

My KBIA commentary is on U.S. Rep. Ike Skelton's impending battle for re-election.

While the Lexington Democratic lawmaker has experience on his side, he'll be facing tougher competition than what he's used to facing.

Take a listen:

Stouffer makes congressional bid official

State Sen. Bill Stouffer, R-Napton, said earlier this year that he would run for Congress against U.S. Rep. Ike Skelton, D-Lexington.

Over the past few days, Stouffer has made the bid uber-official with campaign announcement stops all over the sprawling district. He made a pitch for his campaign today in Jefferson City, one of the bigger population centers of the district.

Stouffer will have to get past former state Rep. Vicky Hartlzer and James Scholz in the GOP primary. If he wins the primary, Stouffer will face a challenge in beating a long-time incumbent who's done well in a Republican-heavy district.

Here's Stouffer answering questions from the media. I'll post parts of his speech when I can:

I'm Going to Witchita!

I think I can safely say that most political press conference don't feature teenage garage bands playing the White Stripes.

But that assumption was shattered into 1,532 pieces when I entered state Sen. Bill Stouffer's presser announcing his congressional bid against U.S. Rep. Ike Skelton, D-Lexington.

Behold!

CQ: Stouffer jumps into MO-4 race

U.S. Rep. Ike Skelton's re-election bids have typically been an afterthought during most elections cycles. But the emergence of two Republicans candidates with electoral experience could make the contest more interesting in 2010.

Sen. Bill Stouffer - a Republican from Napton who was recently re-elected to a second term - told Congressional Quarterly that he will seek the GOP nomination to take on Skelton. This news comes a few weeks after former Rep. Vicky Hartzer jumped into the race.

From the article:

"Enough is enough," Stouffer told CQ Politics Friday. "We've lost sight of what the role of the federal government is. We forget that the federal government was created by the states to serve the states, not to dictate to the states, and I'm concerned with the deficits that we're running up."

And, he continued, "I think we're heading down the wrong road. We've got to be more fiscally sound in our decisions."

Stouffer said he would have voted against the economic stimulus law and the House-passed "cap-and-trade" climate change bill, which the Senate will consider later this year. Skelton voted for both of them.

Read the rest here.

There are two lines of thought here. The first is that the a primary between Hartzer and Stouffer could become contentious and ultimately distract from the goal of defeating Skelton. The inter-party match could drain resources that could be utilized during the general election.

On the other hand, a fierce primary could prepare the eventual nominee for a tough general election cycle. And it's a safe assumption that the National Republican Congressional Committee - an entity that could provide much-needed cash and organizational support - won't exert resources until the general election cycle.

Regardless, whoever comes out of this will have to defeat a veteran congressman with a long record of winning on GOP turf. CQ has rated the U.S. Fourth District as "safe" for an incumbent re-election.

Politico: Skelton will be in the crosshairs

(H/T Tony Messenger)

The Politico reported today that the National Republican Congressional Committee will target U.S. Rep. Ike Skelton, D-Lexington, in next year's election:

House Republicans also appear confident that difficult votes on health care and energy legislation will put battle-tested members from conservative districts in trouble. There are over a dozen Blue Dog Democrats on the list, including those who have coasted to re-election in recent years.

Democratic members fitting that description include House Armed Services Chairman Ike Skelton (D-Mo.), who hasn’t faced a tough re-election since 1982, Rep. Rick Boucher (D-Va.), Dan Boren (D-Okla.), Ben Chandler (D-Ky.) and Jim Matheson (D-Utah) -- all of whom are on the list.

The NRCC's support is important because it could mean whoever emerges as the GOP candidate could receive financial and organizational assistance. Contenders who lack the support of national organizations like the NRCC or the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee rarely end up prevailing in elections.

It's an open question, however, who will emerge as the GOP nominee. Congressional Quarterly mentioned former state Rep. Vicky Hartzler as a contender. Other possible candidates include Sen. Bill Stouffer, R-Napton, and state Rep. Tom Self, R-Cole Camp.

As noted in the article, Republicans have typically left Skelton alone. He won his 2008 re-election bid with over 60 percent of the vote

Rumble in the 4th District

A few weeks ago, I wrote about the increasingly loud criticism of U.S. Rep. Ike Skelton, D-Lexington, from the state and national GOP.

The criticism was odd, because Skelton usually isn't in the political cross hairs. It also seemed strange that Republicans would spend time and money attacking a lawmaker that won re-election last year with over 60 percent of the vote.

Strange, of course, unless there was going to be a serious effort to unseat him.

Skelton's district - which runs includes Jefferson City, some Lake of the Ozarks counties and parts of southwest Missouri - is a fairly Republican district. "MO-4" is home to a number of sitting Republican legislators that could hypothetically challenge the veteran Democratic congressman.

So far, there's been rumblings from at least two pols about challenging Skelton in next year's election cycle.

The first possibility is state Rep. Tom Self.  Springfield News-Leader reporter Chad Livengood reported a few weeks ago that the Cole Camp Republican was mulling a bid against Skelton. The term-limited state represenative, according to Livengood, is perturbed about a ban on youth-sized motorcycles and ATVs.

Another possibility is Sen. Bill Stouffer, R-Napton. Aaron Baker, an aide to Stouffer, sent out a tweet two days ago pointing out a Facebook group called "Draft Stouffer for Congress." The group was started by Central Methodist University student Rachael Selby and currently has over 110 members.

It's hard to ascertain intentions through Facebook. But it is worth noting that the last person to have a "draft" group on Facebook - Ed Martin - announced yesterday that he was launching an exploratory committee to run against U.S. Rep. Russ Carnahan, D-St. Louis.

Stouffer, a farmer by trade, represents a pretty large state Senate district stretching from Howard County to the Kansas City exurbs. His district includes Skelton's home county of Lafayette. As the chairman of the Senate Transportation Committee, Stouffer is best known around the Missouri Capitol for dealing with transportatin-related issues.

Hypothetically, there are several other GOP state lawmakers who could make a run at Skelton. They include Sens. Carl Vogel, R-Jefferson City, Delbert Scott, R-Lowry City, David Pearce, R-Warrensburg, and Dan Clemens, R-Marshfield. Vogel, Scott and Clemens are term limited.

It's always noteworthy to have somebody with elected experience run for Congress. But all of these potential Republican candidates face challenges.

First, Skelton has proven adept at winning in an overwhelmingly Republican district. He's defeated some relatively well-known GOP challengers in the past - including former Lt. Gov. Bill Phelps and Wendell Bailey. He'll likely use the power of his incumbency to raise a great deal of money for any challenging re-election bid.

The other thing worth noting is that above candidates are in some cases regional political figures. Vogel, for instance, is probably unknown in Webster County. Pearce and Clemens is likely not known to most folks in Jefferson City. And even senators with big districts like Stouffer and Scott will have to boost their name recognition in a congressional contest.

Of course, any nominee could boost their visibility if the national Republican Party decides to play ball in the race. That's not a sure thing given Skelton's electoral track record, but anything is possible in the world of politics.

By the way, Congressional Quarterly rated MO-4 as "safe." That means the incumbent is almost virtually guranteed to win re-election.