U.S. Rep. Roy Blunt’s departure from the U.S. House ensures that a bunch of Republicans will seek Missouri’s Seventh District Congressional seat. At this early juncture, I thought it would be a good exercise to examine this potentially wild contest.
This totally informal analysis is devised partly by reading
dispatches from KY3’s David Catanese and News-Leader reporter Chad Livengood. I also take into
consideration a candidate’s fundraising ability, endorsements, experience and
geographic advantages. I'll periodically reexamine my observations.
Remember, all the predictions in the world don't mean anything compared to the final result on Election Day.
- John Putnam
He has the potential to siphon off some of the Joplin vote. I wonder though whether advocacy of the Fair Tax will be attractive enough to gather enough support across the district.
- Kevin Elmer
It’s not unheard of for councilmen or councilwoman to get elected to Congress. But being from Nixa doesn’t necessarily provide an advantage in the Springfield-area market. He could, however, be a vote-getter in fast-growing Christian County.
- B.J. Marsh
Marsh has a record of electability in the Springfield metro area. His kind words about Gov. Jay Nixon and somewhat moderate views on issues might hurt him, though.
- Bryan Stevenson
Stevenson’s ranking here is dependent on if he actually runs for the seat. As a sitting state representative and chairman of a major House committee, he could be a contender. I also question whether his comments regarding the Civil War will be much of an issue.
- Billy Long
Long is well-known in Springfield and could be a serious candidate if he self-finances. He's the race's current wild card.
- Gary Nodler
Nodler’s run for the seat twice and he's a decent fundraiser. But does he want to try again? He told Catanese he’s going to hold off on a decision for awhile.
- Jack Goodman
Shane Schoeller’s endorsement spares Goodman of a potentially strong primary opponent. And whether you like it or not, establishment backing means quite a bit in a congressional race where money and organization are the deciding factors. He's not in a population center of the district, but that didn't seem to hurt Blaine Luetkemeyer.
The reason Jack Goodman is the establishment candidate is because he related to the Blunts.
Bottom line is Mr. Goodman's only redeeming value as a candidate is who is a part of his family....sorry, but that should not be the primary reason he is elected.
Posted by: MaximusBevo | March 03, 2009 at 08:59 AM