U.S. Rep. Roy Blunt’s departure from the U.S. House ensures that a bunch of Republicans will seek Missouri’s Seventh District Congressional seat. At this early juncture, I thought it would be a good exercise to examine this potentially wild contest.
This totally informal analysis is devised partly by reading
dispatches from KY3’s David Catanese and News-Leader reporter Chad Livengood. I also take into
consideration a candidate’s fundraising ability, endorsements, experience and
geographic advantages. I'll periodically reexamine my observations.
Remember, all the predictions in the world don't mean anything compared to the final result on Election Day.
- John Putnam
He has the potential to siphon off some of the Joplin vote. I wonder though whether advocacy of the Fair Tax will be attractive enough to gather enough support across the district.
- Kevin Elmer
It’s not unheard of for councilmen or councilwoman to get elected to Congress. But being from Nixa doesn’t necessarily provide an advantage in the Springfield-area market. He could, however, be a vote-getter in fast-growing Christian County.
- B.J. Marsh
Marsh has a record of electability in the Springfield metro area. His kind words about Gov. Jay Nixon and somewhat moderate views on issues might hurt him, though.
- Bryan Stevenson
Stevenson’s ranking here is dependent on if he actually runs for the seat. As a sitting state representative and chairman of a major House committee, he could be a contender. I also question whether his comments regarding the Civil War will be much of an issue.
- Billy Long
Long is well-known in Springfield and could be a serious candidate if he self-finances. He's the race's current wild card.
- Gary Nodler
Nodler’s run for the seat twice and he's a decent fundraiser. But does he want to try again? He told Catanese he’s going to hold off on a decision for awhile.
- Jack Goodman
Shane Schoeller’s endorsement spares Goodman of a potentially strong primary opponent. And whether you like it or not, establishment backing means quite a bit in a congressional race where money and organization are the deciding factors. He's not in a population center of the district, but that didn't seem to hurt Blaine Luetkemeyer.